by
Greek Giant
So the Hot Stove season is upon us folks. I literally looked up the origin of the term “hot stove” before writing this because I am funny that way and I like to know where my words come from. Did you know that “hot stove” is French for “baseball fans who like to gather around a warm wood-fired hearth during the long winter months to discuss their favorite baseball teams”? It’s true. It’s in the OED.
Getting back to business here. Now that the World Series is over it’s time to devote some serious energy and thinking to the Giants big offseason need: a closer. We don’t want to re-hash the tribulations and subsequent heartache our bullpen caused us last season. That topic is so 2016! No, we prefer to think ahead as forward-thinking San Francisco baseballers.
The Obvious Choices
Let’s think: Mark Melancon? Kenley Jansen?
Mark Melancon has been a premier closer for over four years. His smooth delivery and his cutter are among the most impressive in any bullpen. His 51 saves lead the Major Leagues in 2015. He is 31 and not getting any younger however. He remains a bit of a risk for the miles on that arm and logic says “No” to paying huge multi-year contracts for bullpen arms. I have always liked Melancon for his high save percentage and his ability to get batters out in more ways than just strikeouts. He is a proven closer who has already succeeded in pennant races with the Pirates and Nationals. He will likely be a top target for many teams. Should the Giants sign him? My answer: No!
To be honest, I say “No!” to Kenley Jansen on sheer principal. I don’t want to see a former Dodger in the beautiful French (could be part of the “Hot Stove” etymology?) vanilla, orange and black. The Curacao native Jansen has been a top performer for the Dodgers after struggling of and on in 2014 and 2013. His 47 saves last year were among the league leaders, second only to Jeurys Familia of the Mets, though he did blow 6 save opportunities for the Dodgers. His fastball has declined a bit from his peak of around 97 in 2013 but he still throws a 95 MPH pill by most MLB hitters. What makes Jansen desirable to many is his durability along with his high strikeout rate. He is sure to be coveted by many teams if the Dodgers do not re-sign him first. At 29 Jansen figures to be a top closer for at least 3-4 more years.
One has to remember that the Giants absolutely must think ahead to 2018 and beyond. Will they need payroll dollars for extending Madbum? What about signing Cueto to a larger contract when his Opt Out clause kicks in after next season?
Play GM for a Minute: An Alternate View
Just in case you thought playing GM was fun, imagine trying to actually have to figure these decisions out and weight the risks of large contracts against the needs of your team for the years ahead. Logic and history tell us paying top dollar for closers is not a good idea (see Papelbon to Phillies). We are all still shaken by the way our season ended and by the many dis-spiriting failures of our pen last season but as GM you don’t want to let those emotions occlude your powers of razor-sharp reasoning. Were the Giants just strangely bad last year as a one-time phenomenon? Or, is their pen overall, a weak point that needs more than one pitcher to be championship-worthy?
The key is to ask this question: Do the Giants have any alternatives in house? What about Derek Law? Are they willing to gamble that their young arms can improve enough to avoid having to pay for a free agent in the pen? What about less expensive additions through trades?
Imagine another scenario: The Giants stay in house for a closer. He/she (Mo’ne Davis is a free agent) performs splendidly. The Giants take the money you and I were going to give to Melancon and use it to sign Yoenes Cespedes.
Just a thought.
For Your Viewing Pleasure
Throw Like a Girl by Spike Lee
This is why America is Great!
Breckeroni says – let’s get Ginny Baker also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0wLCGwYZ3g
http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2016/05/16/178510172/null
Ah, the GMs are having their meetings in Phoenix. That’s why Alex was at the game in Scottsdale last night. He’s not on vacation. He’s working.
http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/giants-notes-new-coaches-were-right-fit-latest-bumgarner
Correction…as he hangs in Arizona…: he’s “working”
Baggs wouldn’t know what that means. We won’t see a post from him until February.
Baggs: “Anybody can self publish”
Baggarly works when his employer pays him to work.
He’s been writing a few stories lately. He wrote a preview for a story about Crawford and Panik “for Play Ball magazine, which will be sent to subscribers and available for single-copy sales in a few weeks.”
Mystery solved. I couldn’t figure out what he went to AZ for. He’s usually so ready to leave!
Ruiz/Dodgers to Mariners for LHP Vidal Nuno.
Arrietta shaves. http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/11/jake-arrieta-cubs-beard-all-gone
Doesn’t he know it’s Movember. No shaving. Guy cannot be a prick…..
Gold Gloves at 5:00pm
I was scouring my Canucks TV listing for some boxing matches?!!!???
Local SF Bay Area Non-Radnich Fans may end up losing the Great One.
Word On The Street is KRON Might Be On Verge of Goner
“Channel 4” might be on the verge of seeing its last days…A few Insiders have said off the record that its parent company, Media General, is, once again, meeting with Nextstar … (they met last month in SF)
-415Media-
To be honest, Uncle Gary was throwing the same schtick as a “shocker” and trying to “push the envelope” on local news.
Nice timing for this article GG! I keep waiting to hear that the Giant’s made a splash…so impatient.
I agree and disagree with the article. Agree in the sense that I don’t like big bucks thrown at relievers; I don’t even really believe in the myth of the closer. And I’d love to have Cespedes too. But Bochy does need a capable, veteran closer to rely on so I’m all for Melancon or Jansen.
Just throwing some other names out there, not sure if they were mentioned already:
Shawn Tolleson – very good in 2014 and 2015 with Texas, ineffective and injured in 2016. Was outrighted and now a free agent. He’s apparently healthy now, still has good stuff (throws 93), maybe had some bad luck last year (BABIP), and is only 28.
Glenn Perkins – given that he plays for MIN, his age (33), his contract being up soon, coming off injury, he could be available via trade without giving up too much. Averaged 34 saves from 13-15 but in 2016 missed pretty much the whole season due to shoulder surgery, so that’s a red flag.
I hope Bobby Roberto Evans reaches out to the BIg Marine as ARZ severs ties with him and Mark Grace
http://www.sacbee.com/sports/article113410833.html
Mark Melancon is at the top of my wish list. In regards to Greg Holland, Alex reports on Twitter that “90 is a pretty good sign at this point.” The point = 13 months since TJ surgery.
By the way, I’ve never found it particularly fun to play fake GM.
I’m obviously not a GM either, but Holland seems to be a guy you add to your bullpen; not bank your season on him. What if his FB doesn’t come back to 94-95? Lots of comments by writers saying the results were “so-so”.
If the Giants sign Melancon, then maybe they can entice Holland to come pitch for the Giants…perhaps as an 8th inning guy until he becomes dominant again. 2 years with a 1 year player opt-out would allow him to improve…have 2 years of security…and the opportunity to close elsewhere (in 1 year) if his performance warrants it.
I didn’t at all mean Holland instead of Melancon. No way. I guess I wasn’t clear on that. I was just giving an update on Holland from Alex’s perspective.
I knew what you meant 🙂
I would rather have Al Holland
Awesome!
BUSTERRRRRRRR
very cool! come on BCraw!
BOOM
Can someone disconnect the Rizzo call and move on!
PANIK!!!
CRAWFORD!!!
JOE COOL WINS A GOLD GLOVE!
Take that Cubbies!!
SWEEEEEEPPPP
How amazing! My big sis ( the one I wrote about) lives 2 miles from Hopewell Junction…party time!!!!!!
when are you going to get your butt out here for a visit?
Ha! Not in the dead of winter! She’s coming here this weekend….I might have to hit NY early spring for a couple of clients so I promise to hit you up…..
i’d miss the ny winters if i could also..
Congrats Gerald Posey III
Alex Pavlovic:
“Brandon Crawford’s reign as the National League’s best defensive shortstop will continue, but his run as the clubhouse’s only Gold Glove winner is over.”
http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/three-giants-win-gold-glove-first-time-1994
First 2 thoughts:
1) I really hope this helps Brandon Crawford feel better.
2) When you’ve got a defensive infield like this, you should win another World Series.
Three Thumbs Up!
Our outfield needs help!
yes, yes, yes!
I think despite Panik and Crawford’s prowess at 2B and SS respectively, without Belt, they don’t win the awards. Thanks to Bob’s 6’5″ frame to stretch out.
Too bad there was so much love for Rizzo.
so you think Belt is the only 1B who is tall. What a stupid statement. Panik and Crawford could win a GG with most of the starting 1B in the league.
I think all of your statements are stupid, but isn’t that like saying the moon rises from the east? I’m just pointing out that his tall frame is such an advantage to stretch out and get the ball into mitt. All I’m just saying Belt has helped, yet Panik and Crawford each deserve the award.
Calm yourself down and eat a Snickers or whatever you do.
whatever dude, most of your statements are homer drivel and don’t add anything to the big picture.
Gee, Belt is tall…….my 5 year old nephew can say the same shit.
Add something insightful, not the obvious homer crap.
So….I should troll like you and be bitter?
No thanks.
It doesn’t matter what Efrain does. He is not happy unless he is not happy.
GREAT POST
Larussa will be next – maybe …
http://arizonasports.com/story/891948/mark-grace-job-diamondbacks-torey-lovullo/
congrats to bcraw, gerald, and my guy JP12..gold glove winners all..how’s that for excellence up the middle?
It’s pretty, pretty good.
Other than that I have to say what’s going on on the map is generating a profound sense of depression and bewilderment.
Shhhhh. You don’t follow rules worth a damn
Sorry. Induced coma time. Wake me up when it’s been decided. I had bought into Nate silver jazz…
it’s still early, surprising though. shows a lot of people are fed up.
Hold your loved ones tight.
Fed as in Federal?
Anybody see Hamilton?
tall left handed reliever with the yankees, right? yeah he was one of my favorites. probably because of his first name.
Anybody listen to This American Life program/podcast? Pretty, pretty good.
I do. That and Grateful Dead on the Archive.org. Snap Judgment and Invisibilia are ok, Americas Test Kitchen Radio also good stuff.
Chuck Todd’s body language and facial contortions are depressing me.
Who’s Chuck Todd?
He’s the heel judge on the voice.
Now it’s time to severe all of my ties with the USA. Goodbye and thank you for all the fish. Alvise
Don’t forget your
blanketTowel..Sure, this one below, of course. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d753eb22c1cfa7df6a9ea0d591120fec5390246b97f8c961bda772a3d1313b9f.jpg
I think it is, “So long and thanks for the fish.”
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03bedaeac34f95af5e6c49f0073b6036cb790dfd3cedd0a5336312306233e2b0.png
Bye AC. You can come back in four years.
We need a Radio Free Europe in these times. Stay in touch, brother.
I enjoyed the “hot stove” French lesson. But it’s a sad, terrifying day for America. Fortunately I’m an ex-pat and have been for more than a year. I confess, the rise of Trump was a factor in leaving my home country. It’s also sad that being in Europe doesn’t make me safe from the Donald. And it’s also sad that I join Alvise, and “all the fish.”
Need a baseball getaway (playing some guitar helped too!)?
Fielding Bible award winners. Buster Posey!
http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-winners.asp
Catcher – Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey excels at every aspect of catching. There are five categories of defense that are measured in Defensive Runs Saved (Pitcher Handling, Controlling the Running Game, Handling Bunts, Good Plays and Misplays, and Getting Extra Strikes). Posey’s MLB-leading total of 23 Defensive Runs Saved breaks down with an above-average number in each one of these categories with 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11 runs saved by category, respectively. Fielding Bible voters acknowledged Posey with a first place vote on every ballot giving him his second straight Fielding Bible Award.
this also helps:
ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Posey had only 2 passed balls last year and 22 wild pitches (which good catchers allow fewer of), the least in the majors.
Gino, Can I come stay with you?
Am I reading that right – Panik won the 2B gold glove? I’m fairly shocked. He’s quite solid but he wasn’t spectacular and his hitting was down. I always thought stronger hitters had an advantage.
It was quite an upset. LeMahieu had won it before and won the batting title this year. Panik only played in 118 games. Schulman said that GGs are not as political and random as they used to be; computer analytics factor in, and the coaches/managers vote, too. Crawford, for example, won on the eye test–the metrics favored Russell. Buster clearly deserved it (last year, too), and it’s not surprising to see Crawford repeat. But Panik was indeed a surprise–maybe a bit of consolation for him after such a down year at the plate.
I don’t know very much about the competition but Panik clearly wasn’t as good in the field in 2016 as in 2015. Crawford had a weird defensive year, just incredible in the first half but pretty average in the second half. Posey on the other hand had I think his best defensive year. All of this is just eye test but I saw pretty much every game…
The thing which really became extreme this least year is that Panik is a superstar at DPs, both in terms of starting them with incredibly dives and improbable throws to 2nd and in terms of turning the pivot, but on the other hand in terms of regular grounders and throws to 1st he’s fairly average.
I forgot to post my last salute to The Oracle. Here it is. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99f0a5a901dd9dca61ddd1dbc2f0d4d98782ca5e5d369bee63ff8ad0453ab5a4.jpg
Good one. If only it were really your last.
This was pretty darn funny. What’s the deal, Alvise thinks you are going to be Trump’s chief of staff or something?
I didn’t vote for Donald J Trump and I approve this message.
I’m already the CEO of my Company (founded by my ancestors about 10 centuries ago – spices trade). Trump WHO?
He’s just another admirer.
Well, if I had to choose between Alvise and your schtick…you lose.
Don’t you care at all about my feelings?
Now that that is out of your system …
Give me your MyHotStoveGuy predictions so we can make the Giants great again.
Congratulations to President-Elect Nero
Another day. Anyone care who should bat clean up next season?
Pence
Everyone needs to calm down. If you really think 1 man or 1 woman can change the machine you haven’t been paying attention.
I think you’re on to something. Conservatives survived 8 years of Bill, intelligible folks survived 8 of W, racists survived 8 years of Obama; surely we can make it through 4…
…although the accelerator seems firmly depressed to the floor of the locomotive…
We’ll see.
Say what you want to about Richard Millhouse Nixon, an he probably deserves it. But the one thing even his critics admit was that he could work the machine, he knew how it worked, and in the end despite even his best efforts he wasn’t able to control it.
Trump is an empty mouthpiece. One that often will put his foot in its mouth an says stoopid stuff, but a mouthpiece. The people that will really be trying to run the machine are Guiliani and Sessions. I think even the most liberal New Yorker wouldn’t have a problem with that.
MyHotStoveGuy™ Contest
1) Pick what position gets addressed first.
2) Pick what Giants player gets dealt first. [Five guesses so far gave me five different players!]
3) What current Giant gets extended and on what terms?
Give me your guesses by Replying to one of my posts/comments so I do not miss it.
If you have a question, or want to play your cards close to the vest?
… write me: My SF Giant Guy at Gee Mel dOtt com
Hey Haak, Ive been off the blog a lot of late, did the final myguys rankings go up somewhere? Guest post maybe?
Still crunching numbers. When it happens it will be obvious and maybe a Guest Post to boot but I am loathe to wade into those waters with some impressive posts so far; 22’sSweetSwing and I will give it a shot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUvQl2OZBD8
i know you smoked yourself a jay and blew the room away, but this is more the feeling I get…
https://vimeo.com/162082950
let’s hope those days are behind us. i know a lot of people this morning are very upset. let’s wait and see what happens..
Only watched the NL infield GG’s. Anyone else annoyed how we were treated to the discussion of why wasn’t the “fill in the blank” Cubs fielder nominated and selected? Sheesh, you got your World Series story, time to move on.
I was only annoyed when they talked to Rizzo on the phone after he won. Enough Cubs already. It was nice when Panik…then Crawford (beating the Cubs SS) happened. I was also glad when Jim Bowden was defending Crawford on MLB radio saying…right now…Brandon is the best defensive SS.
Talking about Votes …
Former MyGuys™ that we wish well but “miss-well” too …
Bickford – #5 Prospect for Brewers
Fox – #7 for Rays; Santos #30
Mejia – #9 for Twins
“Who is Care” says Snorkel.
* Sumatra
* Omlette
* Canadian bacon
* OJ
Im drinking decaf sumatra right now lol!!!
Eff that decaf shit, Slikk.
Tried non decaf and it makes me feel tipsy
What’s wrong with good old American bacon? On second thought, I think you got out just in time.
Donald Chump as the next president of our country? No comment !
None needed.
Got that right
The electoral college is such an arcane and stupid method today that it needs to be done away with.
Agreed
You’ve got to show up and vote to be counted.
What makes you think i did not show up and vote cc OR are you generally speaking?
I’m sure you did. It’ll shock you to look at the vote totals in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Slikk, this isn’t about you at all. In a coalition, everyone has to work together, the Democrats didn’t and they paid the price. And they, and the minority populations, in that coalition will pay a far higher price than is right or fair. This AM there were swastikas on glass windows in Philly. This going to be a long 4 years for everyone.
I got horse laughs from folks I know when I suggested that Jim Webb was the best VP choice. It wasn’t progressive. But it would have caused a different narrative and potentially fractured the GOP constituency’s meme. I’m a pragmatic person, and I rarely abandon the good wanting the perfect.
if I’m correct CC the traditionally Democratic states who voted for Obama when he ran for presidency voted for Trump this time and the Republican side am I correct
Yes but analytically, it was the voter totals in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Flint that drove the loss, and to be fair 16% of the Sanders voters voted for the GOP candidate in key areas of the Philly suburbs.
Breaking News:
Nate Silver DFA’d
The LA Times/USC Dornsife poll had it right all along
They have received a QO.
I went to bed around 3:15 am. Read “All Things Wise and Wonderful” until 4 am, then turned out the light. Didn’t sleep much. Got up around 6:30 am worried about our Governor’s race, which wasn’t called by the AP until 8:25 am MST.
Didn’t sleep a wink either.
I slept a very sound eight hours.
LOL, I’m sure you did.
The USA will survive. Crying in fear is ridiculous.
I haven’t shed a single tear. I have great faith in the USA.
Joe Panik: “With the concussion, I didn’t play 160 games or whatnot, but I knew my stats were strong fielding-wise and sabermetric-wise. When I knew I was a finalist, I knew I had a chance because of the numbers.”
It really is a credit to Joe’s hard work. Remember he was drafted as a shortstop. He played SS through his year at San Jose and only switched to 2B in AA (because of Crawford).
Also, when you consider that Belt and Duffy were also Gold Glove finalists last year, it speaks very well of Ron Wotus (and the minor league development staff) that they do such a great job of coaching young infielders into elite defenders. Even Nunez and Gillaspie improved in short order at 3B this year. It’s a pretty remarkable track record, really, since other than maybe Crawford, none of these guys were projected as plus-defenders when they were coming through the system.
Now let’s fix the outfield!
USC (USC/Dornsife) got some great accolades last night as the only poll that had the election accurate. Lots of pollsters going back to the proverbial drawing board this morning.
I’d say the election projection people should just close up shop. It’s easier to pick which minor leaguers are going to be superstars. (And it’s not easy to do that, either.)
What they’re finding out is that people won’t talk to them, or worse lie to them.
Well, and advance polling doesn’t project turnout. Part of the story is that Democrats stayed home this year. Clinton received seven million fewer votes than Obama did in 2012. Trump received fewer votes than either McCain or Romney did.
Like any great social activist, Kaepernick didn’t vote.
Again, you fail to ask the right Kaepernick questions, which shows your lack of understanding coming from ‘his world. You only want it one way, but you don’t know what millions other think. Put the emphasis on the real issues.
I think you copied that from somewhere and couldn’t explain its meaning.
Sahwee Chollie
All true, but the categorization as ‘likely’ has covered that in the past. This year many just hung up or lied, apparently. I was just cogitating what transpired after the last time a candidate won the popular vote, and lost in the electoral college. It’ll be interesting how sampling theory corrects for this, if it even can. This problem is not unlike the problem in baseball caused by looking at data in a stat gathered over months, and expecting it to tell you anything about playoff performance, for instance. That’s why, LOL, I keep posting those rolling average graphics. It lets you get at trend analysis and gather some perspective about near term ballplayer performance, as in the now infamous Duvall conundrum.
Always rooted for this kid despite the criticism from the “experts” who questioned where he was drafted by the Giants.
Alex Pavlovic Nov 8:
The Giants are the only team with three Gold Glove winners.
Christian Arroyo Nov 8:
3 gold glovers? Is that good? Congrats @bcraw35 @JoePanik @BusterPosey
Arroyo: “Can we make it 4?”
I wouldn’t at all mind relying on finding an internal closer (I’d favor Smith and Gearrin over Law for starters, but give different pitchers a chance) and spend the free agent money on for example a super upgrade like Cespedes, but (1) I don’t think Bochy is capable of managing effectively without a top closer, and (2) Cespedes is really the only superstar free agent and he doesn’t see to want to come to SF.
John, I really believe the Giants need a reliable closer. I think that’s what they should go after in free agency, first and foremost. They may not succeed, but I would like them to try their very best to bring in a closer we can count on, then sort out the bullpen from the relievers we already have.
Given how Bochy couldn’t deal with not having an elite closer last year, I have to agree.
Tell me how does Maddon do without Chapman. Francona without Miller or Allen. Roberts without Jensen. Baker without Melancon. Showalter without Britton.
And he didn’t have an “elite” guy in 12 or 14.
He did have a defined 9th inning closer in 2010 (Wilson), 2012 (Romo), and 2014 (Casilla)…so bullpen roles were defined and he used the pen in a fairly consistent manner. The 2016 9th inning solution (Casilla) failed, so he was juggling to try and cover that major problem up…and potentially (and magically) find a new 9th inning guy.
I think if they sign Jansen or Melancon, you’ll see Bochy going back to his usual bullpen model and usage (like the years I mentioned).
I thought the closer in 2014 was MadBum =)
Chapman was pretty ineffective in the postseason this year (4 saves, 3 blown saves) and the Cubs did okay. It’s certainly possible.
Fangraphs has Panik as #3 defensive 2bman in the nl (behind Hernandez and Walker), but Crawford and Posey were #1 by Fangraphs’ stats.
Listening to MLB Radio (on Sirius) this morning and came away with the following on top relievers in FA.
1) As much as I’ve been flying the Melancon banner for awhile, I think I’d prefer Jansen. I haven’t been open to the idea…because I think the Dodgers will re-sign him…but he’s younger and his strikeout numbers are better. He could also go Andrew Miller (more than 1 inning) if needed; although Melancon probably could too. The radio hosts were also saying (and I agree) that Melancon would be successful with the Giants (with less strikeouts) because of the team defense and AT&T Park. Chapman is a 1 inning guy, period (regardless of WS).
I *will* jump up and down if the Giants sign Melancon, so the RV stays across the street. I just purchased a 2nd RV and parked it in front of Jansen’s house 🙂
2) The radio hosts were saying Jansen and Chapman will probably require 5…perhaps 6 years in any contract they sign. Melancon would probably be 4. They expect Chapman to want a player opt-out after 2 seasons.
3) Lots of chatter about Chapman going back to the Yankees. People keep saying the Dodgers won’t go after Chapman, but I think you have to throw the Giants in there too. Too temperamental between the ears and there’s a risk of future problems (+ recent past problems that won’t fly in SF). Next problem = much longer suspension.
4) One name that seems to be under the radar…as perhaps a set-up guy or a low-cost closer…is Brad Ziegler.
Ziegler’s 37, which is part of why he doesn’t appear in the top-tier group. Same with Benoit, who was great for Toronto after being traded there–but he’s 39 years old. However, either as a short-term move while they bring guys like Law or Strickland along could be a fallback plan if they don’t get one of the top guys.
Need more coffee, because the age thing wasn’t even seen on my part. Short-term closer move as you suggested…or even an 7th or 8th inning guy. I would be happy with just Jansen or Melancon, but with the Giants starting staff…if the bullpen was so deep that the game was shortened…2017 WS here we come.
The interesting thing is that the more analytically driven teams are moving towards shorter outings for starters. The Cubs, for example, made a habit of pulling starters by or before the sixth inning because the data show that pitchers fare much worse the third time through the order.
So if the Giants construct a rotation of innings-eaters that go deep into games, lessening the need for bullpen innings, they’re going against the current grain. Of course, that exact strategy worked well for them as recently as 2012, when they won the NL West by eight games, won 94 games, and then won their last seven postseason games, mostly on the backs of their starters. They had five guys that season that all made 30 or more starts, which is extremely rare.
So I guess the take-home here is that there are a number of ways to succeed. A deep rotation that eats innings is one of them.
The lesson seems to be to play to your resources strengths.
Yes. Look at KC in 2014-15. Their strengths were their defense, their scrappy lineup with good baserunning, and an excellent bullpen. It was enough to beat the Mets’ stellar rotation in just five World Series games. (It was not enough to take down Madison Bumgarner, of course.)
Looking on the bright side as to the Giants, it’s amazing that now we’re talking about building around a rotation that could be elite next year. Just twelve months ago it was by far the weakest link on the team. And building around a rotation sounds like familiar, happy territory for the Giants.
Wiley vets in key positions. 😉
Wiley Wade Miley
Yes, it seemed clear last year that by getting Cueto and Samardzija that that was the direction the Giants were going in. Unfortunately Bochy overdid it in the first few months of the regular season, exhausting the top 3, which was a big factor contributing to the radical increase in HRs allowed in July and August and the 2nd half collapse. Bochy responded by overreacting, which reached its illogical extreme when he pulled Moore in Game 4 of the NLDS. I do think that it’s a viable general strategy which can lead to a World Series victory but the team leads to be seriously behind the strategy, in terms of both managerial tactics and roster construction, and that clearly wasn’t the case last year. In terms of roster construction, if you’ve got a lot of effective innings-eating starters, you don’t need such a deep bullpen, but you do still need one or two top-flight relievers. In principle that should be what the Giants are aiming for.
The tendency towards shorter innings for starters shouldn’t be exaggerated. The Cubs did it not so much because of the general idea of avoiding 3rd-time-through but because the particular starting pitchers they have simply don’t have much stamina (Arrieta for example had clearly burned out in the 2015 postseason). The Indians were able to succeed with this this strategy not just of Miller and Allen but because they managed to consistently jump out to leads even when their starters were mediocre. Only two of the World Series’ 7 games were close games with effective bullpen usage by the winner (games 3 and 5)–the other games were either one-sided (games 1, 2, 4, and 6) or had ineffective bullpen usage (game 7). And although building a team around heavy using of great relief pitchers can produce World Series runs, it’s also worth noting that the year after the Royals’ rode their closer Holland to the World Series, he suffered serious arm problems, and the year after their rode their closer Davis to the World Series, HE suffered serious arm problems. This may not be a good long-term strategy.
I prefer Melancon to either Jansen or Chapman because his WPA/SD/MD stats are much better.
Trust me…I’ve been all over Melancon and would yell out loud (is that YOL?) if the Giants signed him. When the age, strikeouts, and ability to pitch multiple innings was brought up about Jansen…then they discussed the 4-5 year contract (4 for Melancon, 5 for Jansen)…all that made me think Jansen might be the better investment.
Either/or…I’m a happy camper!
The GG pick that sticks in my mind, is Rizzo at 1B. I don’t see him a lot, but what I have hasn’t been complementary.
There was a comment on MLB Radio last night that he was significantly better in the regular season…then you saw in the playoffs. This said, the radio hosts were saying the elite guy is Goldschmidt. I think Belt is even better than Rizzo defensively, but that’s just me.
Belt is a dramatically better fielder than Rizzo, but I’d agree Goldschmidt deserved it. As to playoffs vs regular season and Rizzo. We saw in in 8 regular season games against us wasn’t it, and he was underwhelming.
I was really surprised Goldy didn’t win it. He’s won it before and he’s terrific. I guess the Giants should be happy that the Cubs’ halo effect didn’t extend to Addison Russell.
They had to have a pick get GG somewhere. Rizzo, given the way 1B’s are rated, was the least offensive.
Not a Goldschmidt fan when he plays the Giants, but I respect his play and he’s an all-around excellent player who got shafted over a player who plays on a more “glamorous” organization in a bigger market.
Our new home
http://thadandlaura.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/cave-connection-entrance-sumaguing.jpg
Tomb? You neanderthal. Next you’ll be painting on the living room wall.
Philippines caves have come a long way- this one has WiFi, a wet bar, and a portable wall to keep undesirables out.
I hope you can heat up the oil enough for your epic pan fried chicken…
Bat guano burns hot.
How touching – won’t need any other ‘spices’.
Fred and Wilma
Andrew Bailey to Angels. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/b337f420be7a42cb9ba2c45163d149ba/angels-re-sign-rhp-andrew-bailey-1-year-deal
I forgot AB is still in the majors.
I had too.
Panik still needs to get himself back together at the plate.
He started in the playoffs, so let’s hope he’s back on track…
.462 over four games.
Another regret for not going farther so that good trend could keep going.
…..were you watching down the stretch?
I watched the entire year. He hit .167 from September 1st until the end of the season. He had a very nice series against the Cubs to end it. Overall, he hit poorly.
I calculated xBABIPs on Sept. 7, Panik’s was .256 when his BABIP was .291, so he did have some bad luck without which he would have hit like 25 points higher. Still not great but not as bad.
And…?
MLBPA, Part 3. The strike year. http://www.hardballtimes.com/a-history-of-the-collective-bargaining-agreement-part-3/
Destination Landing Spots
* Repost
1. Yoenis Cespedes – Dodgers. Five years, $125MM.
2. Edwin Encarnacion – Red Sox. Four years, $92MM.
3. Aroldis Chapman – Yankees. Five years, $90MM.
4. Justin Turner – Dodgers. Five years, $85MM.
5. Kenley Jansen – Cubs. Five years, $85MM.
6. Dexter Fowler – Cardinals. Four years, $64MM.
7. Jeremy Hellickson – Rangers. Four years, $60MM.
8. Mark Trumbo – Orioles. Four years, $60MM.
9. Ian Desmond – Phillies. Four years, $60MM.
10. Ivan Nova – Angels. Four years, $52MM.
11. Mark Melancon – Giants. Four years, $52MM.
12. Jose Bautista – Blue Jays. Three years, $51MM.
13. Wilson Ramos – Astros. Four years, $50MM.
14. Rich Hill – Yankees. Three years, $50MM.
15. Jason Hammel – Braves. Three years, $42MM.
16. Matt Wieters – Braves. Three years, $39MM.
17. Josh Reddick – Giants. Three years, $36MM.
18. Neil Walker – Mets. Three years, $36MM.
19. Carlos Gomez – Rangers. Three years, $36MM.
20. Michael Saunders – Orioles. Three years, $33MM
21. Mike Napoli – Indians. Two years, $28MM.
22. Kendrys Morales – Blue Jays. Two years, $26MM.
23. Greg Holland – Nationals. Two years, $18MM.
24. Travis Wood – Marlins. Three years, $21MM.
25. Neftali Feliz – Rockies. Three years, $18MM.
26. Brett Cecil – Mariners. Three years, $18MM.
27. Brad Ziegler – Red Sox. Two years, $16MM.
28. Andrew Cashner – Pirates. One year, $8MM.
29. Jason Castro – White Sox. Two years, $15MM.
30. Brandon Moss – Nationals. Two years, $14MM.
31. Luis Valbuena – Brewers. Two years, $14MM.
32. Joe Blanton – Marlins. Two years, $14MM.
33. Carlos Beltran – White Sox. One year, $14MM.
34. Sergio Romo – Dodgers. Two years, $14MM
35. Sean Rodriguez – Padres. Two years, $12MM
36. Santiago Casilla – Reds. Two years, $12MM.
37. Jon Jay – Indians. Two years, $12MM.
38. Fernando Salas – Twins. Two years, $12MM.
39. Boone Logan – White Sox. Two years, $12MM.
40. Matt Holliday – Rangers. One year, $10MM.
41. Bartolo Colon – Mets. One year, $10MM.
42. Steve Pearce – Yankees. Two years, $10MM.
43. Matt Joyce – Athletics. Two years, $10MM.
44. Nick Hundley – Angels. Two years, $10MM.
45. Eric Thames – Rays. Two years, $10MM.
46. Charlie Morton – Royals. One year, $8MM.
47. Edinson Volquez – Phillies. One year, $8MM.
48. R.A. Dickey – Braves. One year, $8MM.
49. Chase Utley – Angels. One year, $8MM.
50. Derek Holland – Padres. One year, $6MM.
Where did you get this?
Why in the world would the Giants want Reddick? Among other problems, he’s yet another hitter who can’t hit lefties.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html
I’ve asked myself the same question. I’ve cooled significantly on Mr. Reddick.
He is like when Eric Brynes romanced Sabean that he wanted to play for the Giants. Neither did or will happen IMO.
They are non quantifiable guesstimates. Here ya go
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html
If you’re feeling down and want to find something positive, look to the fact that the media was unable to manipulate the population into achieving its desired outcome. Even if you hate this result, that fact is a victory for democracy.
…… or that Michael Moore’s original prediction – came true and that Canada’s website on how to become a citizen crashed when Trump appeared to close in on a victory.
An opinion.
Grab some pine, jackass.
Hey…I’m glad to see you temporarily abandoned your usual passive-aggressive act in favor of some actual aggression. Good for you.
If you reword that sentence you will see that he’s already most likely both….
Buddy Black http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/07/bud-black-introduced-as-colorado-rockies-new-manager/
What a weird year, especially if you’re from the Bay Area.
http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/
He knows the demographic, that’s for sure.
MLB Trade Rumors Off-Season Outlook – SF GIants…hot off the presses!
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/offseason-outlook-san-francisco-giants-7.html
Interesting thought about moving Pence to LF.
Yeh…I thought that automatically, whenever Reddick was discussed. That said, he won his RF GG in 2012…so it’s been a few years.
I was musing on Gorkys Henandez too.
Everyone is questioning Bochy’s 2016 bullpen management.
Bochy wants to talk to you. Grab a beer… 🙂
Sorry. I meant everyone but CC.
What course of action are you recommending with regard to Bochy?
Either he improves or moves.
With you as his judge? That’s interesting that you see yourself in that role.
I don’t think it requires a judge. His failures in 2016 were painfully obvious. I’m not sure he can survive a similar season.
That’s your opinion. We’ll see. All runs come to an end, anyway. In 10 years, given the nature of the game, you can feel good about being the harbinger of change. It was a long time between 2010 and the previous WS win. But no matter what, Baseball goes on.
Players play and managers manage. If the guys he chose had executed the task at hand there would have been no issues. You don’t know whether the guys you wanted him to play or pitch would have done any differently.
The writer was and maybe Will Smith was too.
And maybe the rest of the players.
Touche.
And the GM.
That’s in the past … but Flannery never questioned it.
It’s always interesting to see what national writers say about your team and how it betrays some of their ignorance. Chris Heston is the main competitor to Cain for the fifth starter spot?
Let’s review: Heston made 31 starts and pitched over 177 innings in 2015. Even with a bad second half, he finished with an ERA under 4 and 12 wins–and a no-hitter. For that, the Giants “rewarded” him by demoting him from the 2016 rotation–not even a chance to compete for a spot–putting him (briefly and unsuccessfully) into middle relief, sending him to AAA after just four appearances, and burying him in June on the 60-day DL with an oblique injury. Heston was back pitching in games by August, but the Giants never took him off the 60-day DL until yesterday. I remember reading he made an extra $100K or so by being on the 60-day DL, so basically they just paid him off to bury him and tank his season.
I think we’ve seen plenty of evidence about how the Giants (do not) value Heston. Maybe they’re right about him, but it’s a head-scratcher that this writer would suggest he might be in the Giants’ rotation in 2017. I’d say he’s at best sixth on the depth chart (behind Cain, Blach, Blackburn, Stratton, Beede, and maybe others), and I wouldn’t actually be stunned if they just dropped him off the 40-man later this month to make room for the new guys they want to protect from the Rule 5 draft.
For some reason I cannot picture my guy BB9 at home in Nacogdoches doing the same drills as Goldy…
http://tinyurl.com/ou29dnm
Why why why is anyone considering Reddick? Check out his platoon splits:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=3892&position=OF&season=0
Now check out the team platoon splits:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=13&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=14&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d
It wasn’t an accident that the one really weak postseason hitting performance was the one game against a lefty starter.
They need someone who can really hit lefties.
OK – I will forward to Sabes…
Thanks.
Footy you should have a few areas on your farm so as to give Lena Blackburne (that’s a dude) a run for his deceased money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flrWvnhPmng
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-elLnUeF2ro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRSe7okTnSI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ab1ua1wlxog
Interesting. The Giants are reportedly meeting with Chapman and his reps, according to Bob Nightengale. Not my first choice but like the proactivity.
Link:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BNightengale/status/796459232597983232
Maybe they’re just performing due-diligence and understanding what the salary would be to sign him, so they can use that data in the direction of Jansen and Melancon. Fingers crossed…
They’d be remiss to not explore all options naturally, but yeah Jansen and melancon sound better.
Chapman doesn’t have many more really good years, and when his 100+ becomes 98, you have Strickland as a comp.
Except a lefty–that matters. Not that I want him, for the same reasons others don’t.
Patrick Mooney, Chicago Cubs beat reporter, reports that Chapman is looking for a $100million dollar deal.
Should be a very, very quick meeting then.
Let’s hope so.
Pass.
9 figures was discussed on MLB Radio, but the hosts said “not going to happen”. I only bring this up because “looking” and “getting” are 2 different things. This can also be offset with a player opt-out…and 2 years was brought up for that.
The money is too much, but that’s not the reason I don’t want Aroldis Chapman on the Giants.
We are aligned on that…
Me too. His game is Not Perfect.
Maybe or maybe he and his agent want to drive away other prospective teams to get a good contract from the Cubs and stay there.
Word is the Cubs aren’t keeping him.
Patrick Mooney reports the Cubs aren’t interested: “The Cubs are trying to find the next great closer – not repay Aroldis Chapman after an epic World Series celebration or reward Kenley Jansen for what he’s already done with a Mariano Rivera-like cutter.”
Chapman probably doesn’t want to face Gillaspie.
Coaches and ………
http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/giants-notes-new-coaches-were-right-fit-latest-bumgarner
In honor of Haak-Aways-MyGuy-Allen Button here are some of avwh’s best work.
(Allen either used the wise old Owl avatar but was always amused wheh the Randy Winn avatar would put up when Allen used a different device)
https://disqus.com/by/avwh/
New Post: http://fe0.84e.myftpupload.com/giants-offseason-news/joe-panik-buster-posey-and-brandon-crawford-win-gold-gloves/
Greek: You should also link Susan over on the right. She is Mrs Dan Brown and Dan is “Mr. Susan Slusser”
https://twitter.com/susanslusser