by DrLefty
It’s hard to believe that Cactus League play ends today for the Giants. It feels like that happened fast. We were just in Scottsdale two weeks ago! I guess when your team is in the earliest Opening Day game in the history of MLB, it sneaks up on you.
This hasn’t been a great week for the organization. In no particular order:
- They’ve gone 3-6-1 in their L10, including a noncompetitive loss to the LA Ohtanis, a split-squad “sweep” at the hands of the Reds, and a bad late-inning meltdown last night that erased a five-run lead. Remember when they were 15-3, and it looked like they might actually beat last year’s Cactus League record (22-6)? Well, not anymore. They’ll finish either 19-9 or 18-10. Still not bad, but the play on the field has been disappointing this week.
- The Giants’ prospects got absolutely smashed by the Reds’ prospects in the Thursday Spring Breakout game.
- Top prospect Bryce Eldridge was officially deemed “not ready” and optioned to AAA on Thursday.
- Hayden Birdsong opted for Tommy John surgery after getting a second opinion, so we won’t see him until mid-2027 at the earliest.
The only way this week could have been worse is if the ballpark was on Cesar Chavez Street instead of King St/Willie Mays Plaza. (My kids went to Cesar Chavez Elementary here in Davis–a Spanish dual-immersion school. I’m sure the name will be changed quickly. They already changed “John Muir” Street over by the hospital to “John Jones” a few years ago.)
Spring Training Favorites
- Congratulations to Victor Bericoto for winning the Barney Nugent Award for the outstanding player in his first major league camp this year (and getting sent down on the same day!). Bericoto had a tremendous spring (.429/.432/.714/1.146, 3 homers and 14 RBIs).
- Jared Oliva, whom I’ll mention again below, led not only the Giants but the Cactus League in stolen bases (14, caught only once).
- Jesus Rodriguez: I found him so interesting that I felt sad when he was optioned this week, even though I knew he probably wasn’t going to make the team. “Baby Pudge” hit .357 this spring with a .415 OBP and 1.037 OPS. He hit two homers and stole two bases. He only struck out five times in 41 plate appearances. And he played three positions (C, 2B, LF) plus DH. I’ll be keeping a close eye on him in Sacramento and expect that he’ll be making his MLB debut sometime this season.
- I also was very intrigued by Will Bednar’s progress and was encouraged by Keith Law’s comments about him after the Spring Breakout game: “He was 96-97 with an above-average sweeper, and while he still needs to throw more strikes, there’s enough here that I think he’ll finally make his MLB debut this season…”
“Final” Roster Decisions
A wave of cuts this week has made the picture clearer, though there are still some decisions to play out. I put “final” in quotes because (a) you never know what might happen in the next few days (injuries? trades?) and (b) with the Giants’ odd opening weekend schedule (on Wednesday, off Thursday, on Friday and Saturday, off Sunday), they have two off-days in the first five days of the season. So it’s possible that they might carry an extra position player for a few days, reasoning that they don’t need 13 pitchers or five starters until the road series in San Diego. In 2024, when Joey Bart was out of options, he actually made the Opening Day roster for the Giants and then was DFA’d a few days later. A similar maneuver could happen with Luis Matos and/or Jerar Encarnacion, the two outfielders who are out of options.
Other roster implications: With Eldridge out of the mix for now, that leaves few lefty hitters. In the starting lineup, there’s Luis Arraez, Rafael Devers, Jung Hoo Lee, and the better half of Patrick Bailey. It’s possible that the entire bench could be right-handed if they temporarily keep both Matos and Encarnacion along with presumed backups Daniel Susac, Casey Schmitt, and Christian Koss. Among the lefty-hitting outfielders, Grant McCray has already been optioned, leaving Will Brennan or Drew Gilbert as possibilities. But Brennan and Gilbert both have options, so…on the other hand, Harrison Bader missed last night’s game with a tight hamstring and is day to day. Brennan or Gilbert would be the backup CF if they stay on the roster; Matos and Encarnacion cannot fill that role. (Yes, I know Matos has played CF at times for the Giants, and so have Lee and Heliot Ramos. I said what I said. There’s no one to back up Bader if they don’t keep Brennan or Gilbert.) So assuming it’s those four in the mix for now, let’s compare them:
- Will Brennan: Spring stats: .308/OPS .834. Age 28, has minor league options, can play all three outfield positions, good baserunner
- Drew Gilbert: .281/OPS .687 (missed time). Age 25, has minor league options, can play all three outfield positions, good baserunner
- Jerar Encarnacion: .313, OPS .806, Age 28, out of options, can play corner OF/DH/1B, bad baserunner
- Luis Matos: .265, OPS .782, Age 24, out of options, should only play corner OF, bad baserunner
Brennan and Gilbert have a lot of similarities in terms of skill set, but at this point I’d give the nod to Brennan because he has more of a major league track record (career batting average of .267 and over 800 ABs). Gilbert is younger, and it won’t hurt him to get more AAA at-bats. As for the other two, Encarnacion is slightly more versatile defensively, but that doesn’t mean much. He’s pretty much bad anywhere you put him, but the same is true with Matos. So the difference would be between Matos’s relative youth, former top prospect pedigree, and bat-to-ball skills and Encarnacion’s prodigious power when he runs into one. If I’m being honest, I’m not excited about either of them and don’t really believe we’d miss them if the Giants moved on. I’d keep Brennan and…
The wild card: Jared Oliva. That guy is fun to watch. I’d rather have him on the bench to pinch run late in a tight game than two right-handed hitters who have never shown they can be productive off the bench (i.e., Matos and Encarnacion).
What about the DH role? It’s possible they’ll just hand that job to Encarnacion, see what happens, and hope Eldridge progresses quickly. I could also see them rotating Ramos, Arraez, and Devers through the DH role, giving more opportunities for Schmitt and Koss to get starts. Those two both strengthen the infield defense and may be better hitters than any of the 4-5 backup outfielders we just discussed.
Bullpen Spots
This continues to look messy and chaotic, though it’s encouraging to see that two of the top returnees, Ryan Walker and Erik Miller, have looked good this spring, and Walker got the save in the home game last night. I continue to believe that Joey Lucchesi is going to be the second lefty in the bullpen, at least until Sam Hentges is ready. Matt Gage is out of options, but he’s also, how shall I put this, not very good. Some of the possible NRI additions, including Gregory Santos and Juan Sanchez, have already been reassigned to minor league camp, as has Will Bednar.
Let’s assume that Jose Butto, Spencer Bivens, and JT Brubaker will be in the Opening Day bullpen, since they’re also returnees. Along with Walker, Miller, and Lucchesi, that leaves two bullpen spots up for grabs. Of the NRIs remaining, I think the only real possibilities are Michael Fulmer and Caleb Kilian. Fulmer was part of that ugly eighth-inning collapse last night, but generally speaking he’s had a good spring. Kilian has had a terrific spring (0.96 ERA, 11 strikeouts in 9.1 innings). The other possibilities are 40-man players who haven’t yet been optioned: Carson Seymour, Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck, and Trevor McDonald.
Let’s talk 40-man roster math for a moment. Unless the Giants add Oliva to their roster (unlikely, despite my wishes), they won’t need a 40-man spot for a position player on the Opening Day roster. To add Lucchesi, Fulmer, or Kilian to the 40, they would need 2-3 40-man spots. Where do we get those? Pretty easily, actually:
- Birdsong and Reiver Sanmartin can go on the 60-day IL
- If one (or both) of Matos/Encarnacion is DFA’d, there’s another spot(s)
- If Gage doesn’t make the team, he’d also have to be DFA’d.
There could still be a trade(s) as well–the rumors about Schmitt being traded persist–but with the above possibilities, it would be pretty straightforward to get any or all of the three NRI relievers onto the roster for Opening Day. But they might prefer to keep their options open (pun intended) and put a couple of the younger 40-man guys on the roster. McDonald in particular has earned a shot on the major league roster, but they may want to keep him in the AAA rotation to be stretched out, especially since the injury to Birdsong is a blow to their pitching depth for this season.
Today’s Final Cactus League Game
Guardians at Giants, 12:05 p.m., Scottsdale Stadium
Radio: KNBR TV: Giants Video (free on MLB.TV today)
Tanner Bibee vs. Robbie Ray
I know a few days ago, they’d announced that all remaining games would be at night because of the heat wave in Arizona, but they appear to have changed their minds for today, probably because everybody needs to get out of town. Tomorrow night, the Giants will play the River Cats in Sacramento, and on Monday and Tuesday, they’ll play the Monterrey Sultanes (Mexican League) at Oracle Park before welcoming the Yankees in for Opening Night on Wednesday. We are really, truly almost there now. Lefty out.
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