Happy Winter Meetings Week!

Dec 7, 2024 | Latest Post, Out of Left Field

By DrLefty

Well, this is the week that Stuff is supposed to Happen in the baseball “Hot Stove” season: The MLB Winter Meetings begin tomorrow in Dallas. While there are a number of things that might happen (and we’ll get to that), here are the things that definitely will happen:

    • Hall of Fame announcement (Sunday, 4:30 p.m., MLB Network). The Classic Baseball Era committee has met and voted upon (mostly) pre-1980 veterans who might have been unfairly passed over during their initial period of eligibility. The committee of 16 has eight names to consider, and the veteran must receive 12 of 16 votes (75%) to be selected. This year’s committee includes Paul Molitor, Ozzie Smith, Eddie Murray, Tony Pérez, and Lee Smith. The eight names voted upon were Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris, Tommy John, Dave Parker and Luis Tiant. Of those, Allen has come the closest in the past, twice falling short by one vote. This article explains the process a bit more.
    • MLB Draft Lottery (Tuesday, 2:30 p.m., MLB Network). The Giants, who you might recall did not make the playoffs, will be in this lottery. Their odds of getting the #1 pick are low (1.9%, compared with the Rockies and Marlins, who “lead” the pack at 22.45%), but teams have moved up since this lottery was instituted. If the Giants don’t move up, they’re likely to be somewhere in the #9-10 range, which isn’t that bad!  They selected Tim Lincecum (2006) and Madison Bumgarner (2007) in the #10 spot! In 2019, they also selected Hunter Bish–oh, never mind.
    • Rule 5 Draft (Wednesday, 11 a.m., streamed live on MLB.com). The Giants have a spot open on their 40-man roster (sorry, Kai-Wei), so they could draft someone if so inclined, but I’m still salty about the damage that the pick of Blake Sabol two years ago did to the organization. Nothing against Blake himself, who seems like a nice young man and is in the Trojan family, but…you know the story. Wonder if Joey Bart will be an All-Star for the Pirates this year? Also, the two most interesting unprotected players for the Giants are former first-round pick Will Bednar and #11 prospect Aeverson Arteaga. While it’s unlikely, given their health and production, that either will be picked, I’m most interested in what happens with Bednar because if someone picks him, I get extra points (I had him on my Rule5Guy™ ballot)!
    • Roki Sasaki will be posted by his Japanese club. This was just announced. Don’t even bother thinking about him. It’s the Dodgers, and if it’s not the Dodgers, it’s the Padres. But it’s the Dodgers.

 

What Might Happen

The 2022 Winter Meetings were very exciting. Remember the “Arson Judge” tweet? But last year’s Winter Meetings were like watching paint dry. Shohei Ohtani hadn’t announced his destination and was conducting his own process that had nothing to do with the Winter Meetings. And nothing else was going to happen until Ohtani signed. In fact, it was so bad that Ken Rosenthal, who’s really turned into a whiny little shill, wrote an article complaining about how bored he was and how MLB should do something to make the event more interesting for the writers, I mean, the fans. Or maybe it was Buster Olney. I think both of them wrote some such nonsense.

Anyway, this year the pundits seem to think that a lot of things will happen this week. Like the last two years, there is one huge domino waiting to fall–this year it’s Juan Soto–and reports are that he’s in the final stages of making his decision. It’s always wise to take rumors with a grain of salt, especially if they come from Jon “Arson Judge” Heyman or Jon “Ohtani’s on a plane to Toronto” Morosi, but the story seems to be that there are five teams bidding for Soto: Both New York teams, the Red Sox, the Blue Jays, and (of course) the Dodgers. Today’s rumors indicate that Soto’s price tag is now at or above $700 million as the bidding war proceeds and that the Dodgers are not at the same level of bidding as the other four teams. However, and this is according to Heyman, the Dodgers shouldn’t be ruled out because (a) it turns out Soto enjoyed the West Coast just fine when he played for the Padres and (b) he wants to be on a team that will win consistently.

It’s assumed that once Soto’s destination is announced, teams that lose out on him will pivot quickly to Plan Bs. For example, the Yankees might take their “Soto money” and go after Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames or perhaps Christian Walker. It’s also speculated that teams are ready to move quickly to other free agents once Soto is off the board. So, if Soto makes up his mind today or tomorrow, there could be a lot of activity this week during the Winter Meetings, with players like Burnes, Max Fried, Adames, Walker, Alex Bregman, and Anthony Santander coming off the board, and perhaps the Dodgers inking Teoscar Hernandez to a new deal.  All of that activity might then lead to some substantial trades once teams have a sense of how they’re spending and whom they’re (not) getting.

 

The Giants’ Role in All of This

The Giants are not in the mix for Soto, and as I said last week: GOOD. Not that Soto wouldn’t be a fabulous addition to the Giants–of course, he’d be a great pickup for any team. But he was never coming here, not even if the Giants absolutely blew all the other teams out of the water with their offer. Soto wants to be on a good team with a bright future, and right now, that isn’t the Giants, with their mediocre major league roster and their bottom-third farm system. So I’m glad that Buster Posey and Zack Minasian are not wasting time and energy on that scenario and simply making the team look pathetic (again). If you don’t have Soto, at least you can have your self-respect, right?

Rumors are strong that the Giants’ top targets are Burnes and Ha-Seong Kim. The Kim rumors make a lot of sense given (a) need and (b) fit, specifically Kim’s relationships with Jung Hoo Lee and Bob Melvin. The fact that Rosenthal wrote an article saying that Matt Chapman offered to temporarily move to shortstop while Kim is recovering from shoulder surgery suggests that their pursuit of Kim is serious. (I’m not sure what I think about Chapman’s idea, though. I assume the short-term plan would be Casey Schmitt at 3B, Chapman at SS, and Tyler Fitzgerald at 2B. Whether or not that’s a good plan depends on if you think Chapman would be a better stopgap SS than either Schmitt or Fitz would. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that Schmitt would be fine at 3B in the short run, but we know Chapman’s fantastic there.).

Despite having just dissed Rosenthal above, I really did love this paragraph from the Chapman article:

Chapman’s team-first approach is one reason the Giants signed him to a six-year, $151 million extension in September. His willingness to play short also might reflect the ability of Buster Posey, the team’s new president of baseball operations, to connect with players. Posey, the former All-Star catcher who won three World Series with the Giants, is drawing raves from both agents and rival executives for the “feel” he is displaying in his new role.

Anyway, as to Kim, this feels as inevitable as the acquisition of Chapman did last year, so if you’re in the anti-Kim camp (and I understand why you would be), brace yourself.

The pursuit of Burnes is a different story. There are some connections in that Burnes played college ball in the Bay Area (St. Mary’s) and that Minasian knows him from his Brewers days. But a lot of top teams are going to pursue Burnes, and I don’t know that those connections are going to sway him any more than they swayed Aaron Judge. The Giants are squeamish about long-term deals to free agent pitchers (letting Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodón, and Blake Snell walk after short-term contracts are the most recent examples of this), and Burnes is going to be very expensive, as he should be, given that he’s younger and more durable than Snell, who signed for five years and $182 mil. Burnes will also cost a draft pick for whomever signs him (unless it’s the Orioles, of course). However, IF they can convince Burnes to take their money, he could be a solid play for the Giants. He would give their rotation instant credibility. It would be a big “win” for the new front office.

Signing Kim and Burnes would be leaning into the “pitching and defense” narrative that Posey has repeated since he was hired two months ago. Even if I think that the Giants could/should productively use their resources on bats rather than high-end pitchers, there are some good reasons to root for the acquisition of Burnes. But I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

Other Giants News

There were more additions to the front office and coaching staff this week. Specifically, the return of Bobby Evans and the hire of Jeff Berry (Posey’s former agent with CAA) were made official, and the Giants also hired Hadi Raad from the Pirates for Minasian’s old job, director of pro scouting and Pike Goldschmidt (no relation to our new first baseman) as “director of baseball strategy.” (I’m not sure what that is, but I know the Giants lost their head analytics guy a couple of weeks ago.) Here’s the official announcement with some more details.

 

 

The Giants also added two assistant hitting coaches, who will work with returning coach Pat Burrell. One, Damon Minor, has been a well regarded hitting coach at AAA Sacramento, and the other, Oscar Bernard, worked with Melvin on the Padres.

Tim Kawakami had a nice interview on his podcast this week with Dave Flemming, who was extremely enthusiastic about both Buster Posey as President of Baseball Operations and his choice of Zack Minasian. I’m getting tired of writing about coaches and front office hires, though. I want to see some actual players signed/traded for, please.

So stay tuned for Winter Meetings updates, and fasten your seat belts. This could be a big week. Maybe not for the Giants. But for somebody. Lefty out.