May Showers

May 31, 2025 | Latest Post, Out of Left Field

by DrLefty

… Though April showers may come your wayThey bring the flowers that bloom in May

–Louis Silvers (1920)

As the month of May comes to an end, I thought we might contrast how April (including the few days of March) and May have gone for the 2025 San Francisco Giants. As we’ll see, the “April showers” script has been flipped, and it’s May that has been gloomy and, well, all wet.

 

March/April Key Team Stats
  • W-L: 19-12
  • Team ERA: 3.35 (7th in MLB); Starters: 4.33 (11th in MLB); Relievers: 2.83 (4th in MLB)
  • Runs scored per game: 4.48; total runs scored: 139 (7th in MLB)
  • Slash line: .226/.307/.376; wRC+: 94 (19th in MLB)
  • Homers: 31
  • Stolen bases: 21/28
  • K% 23.9; BB% 9.9

 

May Key Team Stats
  • W-L: 13-12 (one game to go, so either 14-12 or 13-13)
  • Team ERA: 2.59 (5th in MLB); Starters: 2.67 (5th in MLB); Relievers: 2.48 (2nd in MLB)
  • Runs scored per game: 3.85; total runs scored: 100 through 26 games (19th in MLB)
  • Slash line: .244/.314/.387; wRC+ 98 (23rd in MLB)
  • Homers: 25
  • Stolen bases: 8/12
  • K% 21.9; BB% 8.2

This comparison didn’t turn out quite the way I thought it would. I expected that the pitching numbers would have improved in May, and they have. But I also thought I’d find that the offense has fallen off a cliff, and…not really, except in a couple of key spots. First, the Giants have averaged more than half a run per game fewer than in March/April (4.48>3.85). Second, they’ve gone from 21 stolen bases in the first month to only 8 in the second month. They’ve only attempted 12 stolen bases in May, with a .667 success rate. They had a 75% success rate (21/18) in March/April. Other than those two stats, and obviously the runs scored matters more than the stolen bases, the Giants have been slightly better at the plate in May than in March/April (looking at slash lines and K/BB%). They have six fewer homers in May, but they’ve also played five fewer games. The bottom line is that they haven’t been a good hitting team all year, but that’s been hurting them more in May, despite improved pitching.

A couple of other observations: The Giants have now gone 12 straight games in May scoring four runs or fewer–and they’ve only scored four runs twice, once in a loss. They’ve gone 6-6 in that stretch, helped out by three shutouts from their pitching staff. In the first half of May, they had seven games in which they scored six or more runs, including the epic extra-inning explosion at Wrigley Field and the Wilmer Flores Game against the A’s. They went 5-2 in those games. Would it surprise you to know that they’ve only been shut out once in May (a week ago today in Washington D.C.)? However, they’ve had six other games in which they scored just one run (1-5 in those games; thanks again, Wilmer!). So it’s been a tale of two halves of May, and for those of you who are stats nerds, a tale of standard deviations–a handful of lopsided wins skewing the average of a lot of close, low-scoring games.

A couple of beat writers (Alex Pavlovic of NBCS-BA and Shayna Rubin of the Chronicle) have also written about the Giants’ steep decline in stolen bases and even stolen base attempts in May. In Slusser’s article, Tyler Fitzgerald, who has the fastest sprint speed on the team, was quoted as saying he’s been getting “red lights from the dugout” recently, and manager Bob Melvin admitted that it’s been mostly “red lights” because “we haven’t had any baserunners…so we have to pick the right times.” On the good news front, the Giants have improved tremendously over last season in allowing stolen bases–they’re 21st in stolen bases allowed and tied for first in MLB in throwing runners out (thanks, Patrick Bailey, but also, thanks to the pitchers for doing a better job of holding runners). The team that’s worst in MLB in stolen bases allowed is Miami, and whaddya know, the Giants stole three bases last night.

 

Individual Player Stats

OK, so we know about the overall team direction between April and May. What about individual players? Who’s gotten worse, who’s stayed about the same, and who’s improved in the second full month of the season? (Spoiler: Heliot Ramos got the featured image because he’s by far had the best May, though you could make a pretty good argument for Robbie Ray.)

We’ll start with the position players. I’m leaving off David Villar (DFA’d) and Brett Wisely (back in AAA).

Gotten worse from April to May (wRC+)
  • Jung Hoo Lee: 151>69
  • Mike Yastrzemski: 150>67
  • Sam Huff: 85>67 (small sample size)
  • Tyler Fitzgerald: 119>88 (only 11 games in May)
Gotten better from April to May (wRC+)
  • Heliot Ramos (103<171)
  • Matt Chapman (115<138)
  • Wilmer Flores (97<128)
  • Casey Schmitt: 30<109 (only five games in May)
Stayed about the same:

Willy Adames, Christian Koss, LaMonte Wade Jr, Patrick Bailey, Luis Matos. That’s not an entirely fair characterization, as all five of these players have improved their wRC+ in May (Adames has gone from 71<84). But when you’re still well under league average (wRC+ 100), that’s still putrid, and I’m not saying you “improved.” Maybe next month.

 

Pitching comparisons

We’ll just compare ERAs from month to month here. The pitching overall was pretty good both months. I’m leaving out now-Dodger Lou Trivino but including Justin Verlander. I’m also leaving off Tristan Beck and Kyle Harrison, who were not on the team in April.

  • Tyler Rogers: 0.59<3.48
  • Erik Miller: 0.90<2.08
  • Hayden Birdsong: 1.13<3.78
  • Randy Rodriguez: 1.42>0.00
  • Camilo Doval: 1.93>0.00
  • Spencer Bivens: 2.63<3.77
  • Logan Webb: 2.83>2.81
  • Robbie Ray: 3.73>1.41
  • Justin Verlander: 4.70>3.80
  • Landen Roupp: 5.10>1.73
  • Ryan Walker: 5.91>3.72
  • Jordan Hicks: 6.12<6.75

A few comments about this. It’s a crude comparison because starters and relievers have different workloads, and in a couple of cases (Birdsong and Hicks), their roles have shifted in May. This also doesn’t account for relievers allowing other pitchers’ runners to score, to no detriment to their own ERAs. But it gives you the idea that for the most part, the pitchers have been very good, and that three starters (Ray, Roupp, and Verlander) actually improved quite a bit during their May starts. You can also see why Doval got the closer job back from Walker. The one comparison stat that really seems misleading is the one for Tyler Rogers, who’s having a great year with just a couple of bad outings (his ERA for the season is 1.75 with an 0.662 WHIP).

So what are we to make of all this? I’ll make a couple of quick observations.

  1. The Giants’ left-handed hitters (Lee, Yaz, Bailey, and Wade) have given them almost nothing in May.
  2. While Ramos, Chapman, and Flores have had a good month, it’s not enough to offset the others who have fallen off (Lee and Yaz, in particular) or who have never yet gotten it going (Wade, Bailey, Adames).
  3. The pitching staff is the strength of the team, with the starting rotation catching up to the relievers somewhat this month. The biggest problems at the end of April–Hicks, Verlander, Roupp, and Walker–have all been somewhat resolved. In the case of Hicks and Walker, the problem was resolved by changing their roles. In the case of Verlander and Roupp, it was resolved by them pitching better. It will be very interesting to see which young pitcher (Harrison, Birdsong, or Roupp) drops out of the rotation when Verlander returns, which sounds like it will be soon.
  4. First base is a huge black hole (OPS+ of 67 from the four players who’ve manned it–Wade, Flores, Villar, and Schmitt–and it’s even worse if you take out Villar’s and Flores’s stats). On his KNBR show the other day, Buster Posey was blunt that they “need more production” from 1B and referred to a coming “timeshare” between Wade, Flores, Schmitt, and the (hopefully) soon-to-return Jerar Encarnacion. It was also noted that Marco Luciano started at 1B for Sacramento this week for the first time in his professional career. That’s the biggest problem on the roster right now, and it’s fair to say that not addressing 1B more aggressively in the offseason is easily the Posey regime’s biggest misstep to date.

 

Looking ahead to June

What’s disappointing about the middling record in May is that the Giants actually had an easier schedule than they did in April, which included brutal travel and some very tough opponents. June will be a mixed bag. They finally play the Dodgers in mid-June and have a home series with the Padres coming up this week. They also play the Braves, Guardians, and Red Sox, middling teams, and they have series against the lowly Rockies, Marlins, and White Sox. The schedule is pretty humane, with off-days on most Mondays and a six-game road trip in the middle of month that only takes them to other NL West parks (Colorado and LA). So there aren’t really any schedule-driven excuses for not doing well.

They’ve also been highly fortunate thus far in avoiding injuries. Though Fitzgerald and Schmitt missed some time in April/May, Encarnacion and Tom Murphy have been out the whole season, and Verlander is on the IL right now, they should have everyone but Murphy back within the next week. So again–no excuses (just ask the Dodgers about injuries).

Encarnacion’s return, which could happen this week at home, should provide some improved depth. The rotation and closer roles are more stable than they were a month ago. Will it be “June Boom” or “June Gloom/Swoon”? We shall see.

 

Today’s Game

Giants at Marlins, 1:10 p.m. at loanDepot Park 

Robbie Ray (7-0, 2.56 ERA) vs. Edward Cabrera (1-1, 4.73 ERA)

Happy end of May and almost June! Lefty out.